In the NBA, things can change quickly. Before Sunday’s trade, Boston was already a top prospect, but now that it has an All-Star in its backcourt, it’s in a league of its own.
The Milwaukee Bucks were praised in this and other places three days ago for shocking the league with a huge win that put them at the top of the weak Eastern Conference. Then, on Sunday afternoon, the Boston Celtics traded Jrue Holiday to the Portland Trail Blazers for Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, and two future first-round picks: Golden State’s protected top-four pick in 2024 and Boston’s unprotected 2029 pick. This was another shocking trade that should change most projections.
After an upsetting loss in the conference finals and Milwaukee’s trade for Damian Lillard, the Celtics saw a chance to improve a championship-ready team that had already been changed by the trade of Marcus Smart for Kristaps Porzingis in June and jumped at it.
Early in October, that claim isn’t true, but Boston is now the clear favorite to win it all. Some might disagree with this because the Nuggets, Suns, Warriors, and Bucks are all good teams, but right now it’s hard to see any holes in the Celtics’ squad that make them worse than the other teams.
Holiday is a great two-way combo guard because he can shoot (he made 38.4, 41.1, and 39.2 percent of his three-point shots over the last three seasons), run pick-and-rolls, create good looks for himself and others, be very annoying to anyone who has to play defense against him, and help Boston’s two All-NBA forwards, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, by taking on many tasks on both ends that they won’t have to worry about. The team’s big move toward size and offensive variety went back to the middle when a useful player that no one thought would be available suddenly became available.
Holiday was an All-Star last year, with 19.3 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game as a mean. He came in 16th place for projected wins and 6th place for DARKO. He also led the Bucks to a title in 2021. On the biggest stages of his sport, he was smart and brave. The Celtics shouldn’t have to deal with Holiday’s most annoying traits, like being too eager and making snap decisions, because they don’t need to push him to his limits like the Bucks did when Khris Middleton got hurt in the 2022 playoffs. Holiday didn’t play well in any of the three playoff runs he had with the Bucks. However, his hasty shot choices in the last two can be partly explained by important losses on Milwaukee’s team.He fits in well everywhere. With that in mind, Boston was probably even more determined because this move keeps the Heat, Sixers, Warriors, Clippers, or any other possible playoff opponent from getting him and getting much better. He’s great for the Celtics. They get a reliable ball handler who can do almost everything Smart and Brogdon could do but at a better level. He can run the offense or help with transition and do it all. He forces turnovers and can match up with almost anyone in motion, which makes things easier for Boston when they’re trying to get back after making a shot. Holiday helps show why the Bucks’ transition defense has been so good for so long.The possible lineups for Boston are horror fuel. Once the Celtics decide on their starting five, they will have one of the best and most skilled groups in the league: Derrick White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum, and Porzingis will have an unstoppable offense and have more than enough speed, toughness, rim defense, and versatility to stop other teams.There aren’t many ways to slow down the Celtics after they got better. They have switch-everything lineups that have been their defense for a few years and can pick on you all over the court. They also have big, rough units that shut down the paint and make teams settle down time and time again.In 2023, both White and Holiday made the All-Defensive Team. Brown and Tatum are good to great with the ball. Al Horford can still move slowly around the court and take hits in the post. It will look even better for Porzingis to play drop defense when Holiday and White are after the ball. With Williams gone, the Celtics can pretty much always have five-out units running open pick-and-rolls with centers who can’t be left alone 25 feet from the basket. The team is about the same size it was at the end of the season. With a drive-and-kick plan that now has a lot of new tools for crunch time, there will be a lot of room to move.Holiday can also make good shots for himself, but he’s also really good at making money off of other people’s attention. The Celtics will be happy about that. Second Spectrum says that Holiday scored 1.27 points per straight play last year as the ball handler in closeout situations. Out of the 202 players who had at least 250 plays, that was the seventh best. (Porzingis came in eighth.)Holiday has a pretty high turnover rate for a starting point guard, but he won’t be one with White and Tatum in charge. He usually makes good choices off the bounce, forcing a rotation and finding an open man who’s either spotting up or cutting through the open paint.He’s been one of the best pull-up shooters in basketball over the past couple of seasons and can make contested jumpers late in the shot clock. Last year, he made a career-high 69 percent at the rim, all in open lines that weren’t as open as Boston’s. But Holiday was one of only 12 players (out of at least 500 attempts) who finished last season with more than 78% of their shots being made by themselves. That rate going down and him not making as many of those tough-looking faces as he did last year will be good signs:Looking further ahead, the Celtics may have to make an interesting choice about their bench if they play Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Nikola Jokic in the playoffs and need to improve their front line. But if and when Boston gets there, the fact that Joe Mazzulla has to bring White off the bench and play two good big men at the same time should be seen as a treat rather than a problem.For now, the Celtics can try out a variety of lineups that are quick, strong, and adaptable, with the help of a supporting group that doesn’t look very strong on paper but is ready to step up in key roles. There are movement shooters like Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, and Svi Mykhailiuk who can make the most of open looks and keep up with teams full of top-notch individual defenders. Oshae Brissett, Jordan Walsh, and Dalano Banton can give the team the extra energy, hustle, and length it needs. Holiday fits with all of them.Boston still has its first-round picks in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027, which is different from some other teams that are built to win the title. It won’t be easy for the Celtics to put together enough pay to trade for better players, but they still have pieces they can trade, both now and after the season.The Celtics do have a problem with health, though. Boston just sent two great role players to Portland in exchange for Porzingis and Horford, who is 37 years old and prone to injuries. They will have to keep things calm in the frontcourt. It’s hard to take that. With Time Lord on defense two years ago, they looked unbeatable. They were +30 in the 2022 Finals when he was on the court and –54 when he was sitting. (They were both team highs.) Last year, the Celtics had the best defensive rebounding rate. When Williams played, they were even better on the glass. They were almost out of the conference playoffs before Mazzulla put Rob back in the starting five. He was a dangerous lob threat and could make pick-and-rolls much easier for Tatum. These are unique skills that can’t be copied. Williams put room between the boards and threw down anything that was thrown near the backboard. Will Porzingis be okay with doing some of that messy work that leads to second chances on tip-outs and putbacks? It hurts even more now that Grant Williams is gone, because he added size. (But he’s not really impossible to replace.)