Real Madrid found a replacement for Thibaut Courtois quite quickly.
The goalie for Belgium was injured during a training session last Thursday, and it is expected that he would miss the entire 2023–24 season. Madrid revealed Kepa Arrizabalaga on Tuesday; he was acquired on a season-long loan from Chelsea.
There are huge shoes (and gloves) for Arrizabalaga to fill.
Since moving to Madrid, also from Chelsea, in the summer of 2018 (when Arrizabalaga took his place at Stamford Bridge), Courtois, 31, has played a crucial role. His saves have helped the team win two La Liga championships, a Copa del Rey, a Club World Cup, and its 14th European Cup/Champions League triumph. He made nine stops to deny Liverpool in that latter final 15 months ago, the most ever in a Champions League final since Opta started compiling such data in 2003-04, and his performance highlighted just how important he is to Carlo Ancelotti’s team.
The acquisition of Arrizabalaga by Madrid surprised some people.
Arrizabalaga has had difficulty for the majority of his time in England, despite the fact that they came close to buying him from Athletic Bilbao in January 2018 before then-head coach Zinedine Zidane canceled the trade. The 28-year-old replaced Edouard Mendy as Chelsea’s first choice last season, but his first few seasons in the Premier League were marked by mistakes and weak performances.
His reluctance to be replaced prior to the penalty shootout in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley during his rookie season, which Chelsea later lost, is still possibly the thing that English fans remember him for most.
How would you compare these two goalkeepers?
Distribution
Arrizabalaga and Courtois appear to be comparable in this one area. They were deployed as a release for defenders under duress, and they each averaged 39 touches per 90 minutes in the Premier League and La Liga, respectively, last season.
Courtois outperformed Arrizabalaga’s passing accuracy of 83 percent, recording a mark of 86%. But that can also indicate that the Spaniard is more daring with his passing, whereas Courtois frequently takes the safe route.
When the ball is at his feet, Arrizabalaga does not hesitate to make a dangerous decision.
In this illustration from a game against Manchester United late in the previous campaign, defender Lewis Hall passes back to him with Jadon Sancho of the other team watching for any mistakes:
Sancho runs towards Arrizabalaga, but the goalkeeper does not panic and passes a return ball into space for Hall, who is able to turn and move, with Sancho taken out of the equation.
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In contrast, when under pressure, Courtois might appear ungainly on the ball.
In a May match against Sevilla, Madrid was pressed back in their own half when left-back Ferland Mendy passed to him:
Although it seems simple to Courtois, a poor first touch causes Sevilla’s Erik Lamela and Bryan Gil to rush over to him. He is compelled to go long rather than send a quick pass to one of Madrid’s defenders:
Although Madrid do not frequently use their goalie to build attacks as much as other teams, this is not one of Courtois’ strengths.
Shot-stopping
As one of the best shot blockers in the world, Courtois has a distinct advantage in this situation.
Using “expected goals on target” (xGOT), a statistic that takes into account the quality of the on-target attempts a goalkeeper has faced and takes into account factors like the ball placement in the goal and the angle from which the shot or header is taken, this can be explored in the numbers by comparing his goals conceded versus the goals he has been expected to concede.
The measurement of “goals prevented” is formed by the discrepancy between actuality and expectation. The player’s shot-stopping performance improves as their number of goals avoided rises.
For the past four seasons, Courtois has consistently prevented more goals than anticipated, on a rolling average of 50 shots, while playing for Real Madrid.
In the same time frame, Arrizabalaga’s shot-stopping performance has been much less outstanding. At his worst, he was giving up up to six goals more than anticipated in the 2019–20 season. He barely featured in the following two seasons as Mendy was signed that summer and took his starting spot, but the Spaniard reclaimed his status as No 1 early last campaign — dramatically outperforming his xGOT by eight before experiencing a dip in form at the end of the season.
“I’m coming at one of the best moments of my sporting career,” Arrizabalaga said at his presentation as a Madrid player. “I’m ready for this challenge and for a great year. Commitment and hard work will not be lacking.”
Crosses
This is where Arrizabalaga struggles the most in comparison to Courtois. Few goalkeepers dominate their area as convincingly as Courtois does with his 6ft 7in (200cm) frame — at 6ft 2in, Arrizabalaga will struggle to impose himself in the same way.
The stats tell the story here.
Courtois made 0.9 catches per 90 minutes in La Liga last season compared to Arrizabalaga’s 0.5 in England’s equivalent. The Chelsea man produced 0.5 punches per 90 in the Premier League — far more than the Belgian’s 0.1 average in domestic league play.
When the ball is in the air, Courtois will almost always opt to try to catch it.
Take this example, early on against Real Valladolid in April. An inswinging corner is delivered, with visiting centre-back Jawad El Yamiq charging in from the edge of the box:
El Yamiq challenges Courtois but he rises above him with ease, claiming the ball with the confidence he has shown many times before.
Arrizabalaga cannot rely on his stature in the same way as the player he is replacing in goal for Madrid.
In this example against Wolverhampton Wanderers, from the same month last season, he starts in a similar position to Courtois in the screengrabs above as a corner is swung in from the left:
He finds himself under pressure from Wolves striker Matheus Cunha and cannot catch the ball, instead producing an unconvincing punch:
Madrid’s defenders may have to provide Arrizabalaga with greater protection at corners and set pieces to counter his weakness in these situations. It will not help that Eder Militao — their best defender from dead-ball situations — has also been ruled out long-term with an ACL injury of his own suffered in their opening game of the La Liga season at the weekend.
Sweeper-keeper
Arrizabalaga is not afraid to come off his line to sweep up at the back — although Madrid have not tended to play this way with Courtois.
That is shown in these graphics of their respective defensive actions in the Premier League and La Liga last season (defined as a tackle, attempted tackle, block, clearance or interception). Courtois made just one such intervention outside his penalty area; Arrizabalaga made eight.
This is partly because Chelsea played a higher defensive line than Madrid, but it also illustrates Arrizabalaga’s style.
In this example against Liverpool in April, Andy Robertson plays a long ball forward behind the home defence…
… and Arrizabalaga is well-positioned to help out his centre-backs Wesley Fofana and Kalidou Koulibaly. Darwin Nunez rushes towards him but he calmly passes to Koulibaly, keeping Chelsea ticking over at the back:
This brings us to the howlers committed by both men…
Mistakes
Courtois errors are few and far between. He has been one of Madrid’s most consistent performers in recent seasons and can rarely be blamed for goals they concede. That said, he actually made more mistakes leading to goals than Arrizabalaga did last season, according to Opta: two to none.
And one of those was particularly high profile.
It came in the first leg of the Champions League last-16 tie with Liverpool at Anfield in February, when Dani Carvajal played a looping but simple pass back to his goalkeeper:
Courtois controlled with his chest and shaped to pass left to Antonio Rudiger. But the ball bounced off his knee and he then stumbled as Mohamed Salah closed him down. Salah stabbed home to give Liverpool a two-goal lead — although Madrid came back to win 5-2 on the night.
Arrizabalaga has his own back catalogue of errors — such as this one, also against Liverpool, in September 2020.
With Chelsea circulating the ball at the back, Fikayo Tomori passes to his goalkeeper. Arrizabalaga has two clear options to move it on quickly: Jorginho right in front of him or Kurt Zouma further left:
But he is not alert enough and his pass gets intercepted by Sadio Mane. The Liverpool forward has an empty net and is able to score despite Arrizabalaga’s attempted recovery:
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The verdict
There are not many goalkeepers who come close to Courtois, so covering for him is going to be a tough ask. Arrizabalaga is an upgrade over Madrid’s in-house option, Andriy Lunin, but he may well struggle to replace Courtois in the long term.
For a player who grew up idolising Madrid goalkeeper Iker Casillas, however, it is a dream move. There is another link to the Bernabeu legend: Arrizabalaga will wear the No 25 shirt — the number worn by a young Casillas when he was breaking through to the first team before he took on the No 1 in 2001.
“We have time, we’ll see,” Arrizabalaga said when asked whether he wanted to stay for longer than this initial single season. “Hopefully with my performance, I can make that happen.”
Additional contributor: Mark Carey
(Top photos: Getty Image)